Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 54.5% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 266 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.7% on 31 Dec 2025 and the lowest 50% on 7 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 50% on 7 Jul 2025. $199.83K traded over the market's life.
53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 266 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2025 | 54.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.33K |
| roughconsensus | No | 1.04K |
| acal | No | 999.96 |
Two major proposals to upgrade the Bitcoin network are currently under consideration, OP_CTV (BIP 119) and OP_CAT (BIP 347). This market will resolve according to whichever of the following options happens by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If one upgrade is activated, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" until the resolution time has passed, and the other upgrade has not been activated. This market may not be resolved to "Neither" until the resolution time has passed and neither upgrade has been activated. If both upgrades are activated at any point, this market may resolve to "Both" immediately. This market resolves based on whether Bitcoin activates OP_CTV, OP_CAT, or both by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. “Activated” means the opcode is live and enforced on mainnet as part of Bitcoin’s consensus rules. Only the chain recognized as Bitcoin by the economic majority counts, based on hashpower, BTC ticker retention, and adoption by major exchanges, wallets, and infrastructure. Soft forks count toward this market's resolution. Hard forks only count if the fork becomes the dominant BTC chain (e.g., not a minority fork like Bitcoin Cash). Testnet, signet, or forks with minority support do not count. The resolution source for this market will be public sources such as Bitcoin Core, dev mailing lists, and major ecosystem infrastructure.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-activate-op-ctv-or-op-cat-in-2025
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 439 |
| storry | Yes | 324.68 |
| acfa | No | 250 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 190 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 165 |
| lissartter | No | 151.83 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
