Analytics
Yes is at 8.6%, down 16 points from 24.1% when the market opened on 7 Oct 2026.
Across the 18 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.1% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.4% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 10.7% on 8 Oct 2026.
Nebraska ranks fifth of the 35 outcomes in “Closest Senate Race?”. Kansas leads at 15.4%; Iowa is at 14.3%.
$986.68 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.49K, with a 4.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 32 trades, $22.16 bought Yes and $546.75 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Prickly-Eyrie with 564 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.1K.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 7 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | 24.1% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 8.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.1K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 563.66 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 405.38 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/closest-senate-race
23 more outcomes, none above 2.3%.
| Hyperlong | No | 164.09 |
| ImNotBetting | Yes | 147.97 |
| Maximus374 | Yes | 70 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 49.26 |
| Bigloups | No | 21 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 20 |
| Solar Summit 0A64 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
