Analytics
Yes is at 8.7%, down 16 points from 25% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 179 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43% on 2 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 27 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 30.6%; a month before, 3%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 24.5% on 4 Jun 2026.
National 5-10% ranks third of the 8 outcomes in “NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?”. Labour 0-5% leads at 48%; National 0-5% is at 43%.
$33.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.74K since listing. The order book holds $2.31K, with a 14.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 100 trades, $51.3 bought Yes and $521.14 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 188 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 575. Ten wallets hold 98.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 25.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 10.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 575.48 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 188.32 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 144.46 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory
| TheOne777 | Yes | 144.06 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 20.48 |
| bpr6180 | Yes | 20.2 |
| Pdh19 | Yes | 20.05 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 20 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 20 |
| conherence | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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