Analytics
Yes is at 0.3%, down 2 points from 2.3% when the market opened on 14 Aug 2026.
Across the 74 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 3.7% on 18 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.4%; a month before, 0.3%.
Moonshot ranks fourth of the 20 outcomes in “Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?”. Google leads at 97.2%; Anthropic is at 3%.
$20 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.16K since listing. The order book holds $1.35K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 162 trades, $0.25 bought Yes and $2.8K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 80sdfs with 817 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.5K. Ten wallets hold 91.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 14 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2.3% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.49K |
| 80sdfs | Yes | 817 |
| balthazar | Yes | 680 |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-text-arena-math-ai-model-end-of-october
8 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| X10X10 |
| Yes |
| 613.54 |
| JordanMooney | Yes | 445.75 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 325 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 292.76 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 274.72 |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 | Yes | 211.3 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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