Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 28% on 22 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2026 to 31 Aug 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 20% on 25 Jul 2026. $8.89K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 1, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 22 Jul 2026 – 31 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | 28.0% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.91K |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 965.04 |
| 80sdfs | Yes | 647.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/second-best-ai-lab-end-of-august-20260720230627650
| Yes |
| 520.07 |
| knnyhy7 | Yes | 520 |
| yujtu6 | Yes | 519.58 |
| balthazar | Yes | 249.14 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 100 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
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