Analytics
Yes is at 2.6%, down 12 points from 14.4% when the market opened on 19 Sep 2026.
Across the 33 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.4% on 19 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 25 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.6%; a month before, 0.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 2.5% on 20 Sep 2026.
It is one of 21 markets under “Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?”.
$459.55 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $309.3, with a 4.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 27 trades, $0.53 bought Yes and $411.49 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. with 150 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 444.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 19 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | 14.4% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 443.68 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 150 |
| X10X10 | Yes | 75.36 |
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/third-best-text-arena-math-ai-lab-end-of-november
8 more markets, none above 4.0%.
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 73.15 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 50.14 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 44 |
| LesterDiamond | Yes | 19.78 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| jackli003 | Yes | 5.85 |
| BOOST250 | Yes | 5.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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