Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 18 points from 24% when the market opened on 16 Sep 2026.
Across the 39 daily closes on record from 16 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24% on 16 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8%; a month before, 12%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 6% on 18 Sep 2026.
Michael Obadal ranks seventh of the 8 outcomes in “Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?”. Adam Telle leads at 34.5%; Sean Parnell is at 19.5%.
$587.01 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.2K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 25 trades, $21.36 bought Yes and $274.73 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 205 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 166.
Trading closes on 19 Jan 2029.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 16 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 24.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 204.99 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 166 |
| DuneMentat | No | 73 |
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-next-army-secretary
| shiifoo |
| No |
| 54.99 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 29.23 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 20 |
| ramc2005 | Yes | 20 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 15 |
| pppnn | Yes | 5 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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