Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.9%. Yes opened at 3.7% on 25 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 25 Aug 2026 to 26 Aug 2026, the price held at 4.1%. $116.04K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 27, 5:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 25 Aug 2026 – 26 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2026 | 3.7% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 4.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sentimental-Crayon-Benefit | Yes | 70.46K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 24.67K |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | Yes | 4.45K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 3.73K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation. This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements. A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks. If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”. If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-does-ox-alpha-belong-to
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 3.72K |
| Huye168 | Yes | 2.02K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| norealtime | Yes | 1K |
| baconboy | Yes | 530.61 |
| Guillemza | Yes | 340.91 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
