Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 40.5% on 23 Dec 2025 and the low 0.1% on 28 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 2.5% on 24 Dec 2025. $5.32K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 6:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 181 points · 23 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 40.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Olka | Yes | 450 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 296.83 |
| fm14 | Yes | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 99.99 |
| xlefgerx | Yes | 39.99 |
| 12234 | No | 30.33 |
| Gambleraddict01 | Yes | 23.26 |
| 3678 | No | 20 |
| berk2 | Yes | 16.13 |
| Yellyboom | No | 10.08 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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