Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 27, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$177.3K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 27, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 27 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 92%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 28 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 27 Feb 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 28 Jan 2026 and the lowest 8% on 27 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 8% on 27 Feb 2026. $177.29K traded over the market's life.

135 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 28, 8:27 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 27 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jan 2026	48.5%
27 Feb 2026	8.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	65.39K
SunlineTicker	Yes	9.52K
ultra-violence	Yes	7.31K

10 of 135 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election is currently scheduled for February 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester. If the election results are not clear by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any change in party affiliation will not affect the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Manchester City Council (https://www.manchester.gov.uk/elections).