Will Martin Schmierer win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?

politicsResolved

No, settled Jul 17, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 17, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 17 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 3 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2026 to 17 Jul 2026, the highest close was 36.5% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 9 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 10.1% on 5 Jul 2026. $1.54K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 18, 1:49 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 3 Jul 2026 – 17 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Jul 2026	36.5%
17 Jul 2026	0.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	818.18
TENETENET	Yes	99.99
balthazar	Yes	99.03

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the Police and Crime Commissioner of the Norfolk Police Area is currently scheduled to be held on July 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Police & Crime Commissioner for Norfolk (https://www.norfolk-pcc.gov.uk/) and the Broadland District Council (https://www.southnorfolkandbroadland.gov.uk/).