Analytics
“Will Luís Marques Mendes win the first round by 4–6%?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: First Round”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Jan 25, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 19 hourly price points from Jan 1, 2026 to Jan 19, 2026 (Yes between 0.1% and 25.0%); 22 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 95.9% of the loaded shares; 174 recent public fills from 73 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the Portuguese Presidential Election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lus-marques-mendes-win-the-first-round-by-46-271
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.68K |
| rated | Yes | 1.24K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 246.97 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 220 |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 180.9 |
| shine | Yes | 126.8 |
| paspor | Yes | 112 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 108.77 |
| yzhaobk | Yes | 104.17 |
| XavierGonzalez | Yes | 83.28 |