Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 8.5% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 19 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 7.5% on 6 Jan 2026. $19.57K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 19 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 8.5% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.68K |
| GUADANHAO | Yes | 1K |
| rated | Yes | 999.78 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 247 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the Portuguese Presidential Election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/portuguese-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 220 |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 180.9 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 116 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 74 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 67 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 19 |
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