Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 4 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 4 Jun 2026 to 4 Jul 2026, the highest close was 28.5% on 4 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 8.5% on 22 Jun 2026. $13.75K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 4:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 4 Jun 2026 – 4 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jun 2026 | 28.5% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 1000wtf | Yes | 681.99 |
| akko123 | Yes | 337 |
| Vovovovovovovo | Yes | 251.03 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| w3rg24 | Yes | 60 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.92 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 13.6 |
| Royal Harbor 217A | Yes | 13 |
| Mitherandir | Yes | 10 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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