Analytics
Yes is at 52%, down 25 points from 76.5% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 70 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 81% on 28 Aug 2026 and the lowest 34% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 46.5%; a month before, 71%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 46.5% on 21 Oct 2026.
Lee Shu-chuan is the favourite of the 3 outcomes in “New Taipei Mayor Election Winner”, ahead of Su Chiao-hui at 47.5%.
$8.68K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $81.6K since listing. The order book holds $58.68K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $15.02K bought Yes and $6.36K bought No; the largest was a $2K buy of Yes at 49.0¢.
The largest Yes position is dddmmm963 with 7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 29.1K. Ten wallets hold 71.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 76.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 52.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 29.05K |
| dddmmm963 | Yes | 7K |
| Infantile-Observation | No | 4.6K |
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-taipei-mayor-election-winner-20260813125857200
| yypower | No | 3.73K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 3.65K |
| JoeJoePowerRanger | Yes | 2.79K |
| misoramen | Yes | 2.15K |
| december | Yes | 2K |
| Hwlam | Yes | 1.9K |
| James-Talarico | Yes | 1.74K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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