Analytics
Yes is at 62%, up 44 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 1 Sep 2026.
Across the 56 daily closes on record from 1 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63.5% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16% on 9 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 56.5%; a month before, 37%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 35.5% on 12 Sep 2026.
Lee Fairclough is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner”, ahead of Navdeep Bains at 33.5%.
$164.56 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.77K since listing. The order book holds $3.88K, with a 14.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 143 trades, $1.81K bought Yes and $1.26K bought No.
The largest Yes position is trulyalya1 with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 85.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 10 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 1 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | 18.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 62.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.89K |
| trulyalya1 | Yes | 1.45K |
| mrworldwide | Yes | 643.88 |
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election-winner
| buoys |
| Yes |
| 539.13 |
| macrosteaks | No | 533.52 |
| donthackme | No | 392.79 |
| Different-Census | Yes | 271.23 |
| musicenthusiast | No | 200 |
| Violet Signal 7849 | Yes | 139.91 |
| 2B9S | No | 132.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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