Analytics
Yes is at 0.7%, down 5.9 points from 6.5% when the market opened on 1 Sep 2026.
Across the 56 daily closes on record from 1 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13% on 2 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%; a month before, 2.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 6% on 3 Sep 2026.
Eric Lombardi ranks fourth of the 5 outcomes in “Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner”. Lee Fairclough leads at 63%; Navdeep Bains is at 32%.
$31.8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $584.47 since listing. The order book holds $14K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 38 trades, $0.06 bought Yes and $485.75 bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 500 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.9K.
Trading closes on 10 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 1 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | 6.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.89K |
| balthazar | Yes | 499.99 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 296.08 |
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election-winner
| mustbethewater | Yes | 182 |
| haveagoodday | Yes | 153.88 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 142.1 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 134.04 |
| Lucerys | Yes | 97.5 |
| donthackme | Yes | 85.31 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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