Analytics
Trading ended on 20 Oct 2026 with Yes at 98.4%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 11 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.4% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 40% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 49.5%. Its largest one-day move was 49 points up, to 89% on 21 Oct 2026.
$4.31K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is BABELCONSTEL with 643 shares; the largest No position is Lets-play with 797. Ten wallets hold 77.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 25, 11:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 49.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 98.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lets-play | No | 796.53 |
| BABELCONSTEL | Yes | 642.86 |
| Gennedy | Yes | 378.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain" on Question 10 in at least one of the electoral divisions for which Elections Alberta reports the results of this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An electoral division in which "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Each electoral division's result will include all valid votes attributed to that electoral division in the official results; votes that are not attributed to any specific electoral division will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated in any electoral division before its vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If results by electoral division are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/ and https://results.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
| Yes |
| 356.85 |
| Rex416 | No | 250 |
| AJSV | No | 237.31 |
| inpassing | Yes | 229.77 |
| TheOne777 | No | 135 |
| Relaccsed | No | 118.05 |
| LittleJ | Yes | 92.18 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-leave-win-any-alberta-electoral-division-in-the-independence-referendum
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