Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 52% on 3 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 91 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 60.5% on 16 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 5% on 25 Jul 2025. $7.95K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 91 points, 3 Jul 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | 52.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 132.88 |
| lissartter | Yes | 75.02 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 6.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lara Trump announces that she is running for United States senator from North Carolina in the 2025 midterm election, by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Lara Trump will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually files a nomination to run, or whether she later files a nomination. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Lara Trump (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lara-trump-announce-nc-senate-run-before-oct
| Yes |
| 4.65 |
| Aaaaaaaa1 | Yes | 4.48 |
| Kolpac | Yes | 3.92 |
| prince1pp | No | 0.02 |
| poy.tra | No | 0.01 |
| zanovo- | No | 0.01 |
| iraqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq | No | 0.01 |
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