Analytics
Yes is at 0.3%, down 26 points from 26% when the market opened on 18 Aug 2026.
Across the 71 daily closes on record from 18 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38% on 19 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.2%; a month before, 2.8%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 10% on 21 Aug 2026.
Below 3,490 ft ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “How low will Lake Powell drop?”. Above 3,510 ft leads at 95.8%; 3,500–3,510 ft is at 4%.
$62.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.1K since listing. The order book holds $3.18K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 146 trades, $54.9 bought Yes and $3.65K bought No.
The largest Yes position is X10X10 with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.7K. Ten wallets hold 86.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 16 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 26.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.7K |
| X10X10 | Yes | 1.06K |
| Perypery | Yes | 500 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 3,490 feet is the minimum power pool elevation below which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydroelectric power. Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Official listing:
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 444.21 |
| 80sdfs | Yes | 326.53 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 322 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 299.44 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 224.99 |
| Started-with-20-USD | Yes | 145.13 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 140.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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