Analytics
Yes is at 76.5%, up 25 points from 52% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
The high was 84.5% on 16 Aug 2026 and the low 52% on 15 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 74.5%; a month ago, 68%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 84.5% on 16 Aug 2026.
Lai Jui-lung is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner”, ahead of Ko Chih-en at 23.6%.
$146.64 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $19.52K since listing. The order book holds $15.64K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 470 trades, $6.04K bought Yes and $2.18K bought No; the largest was a $1K buy of Yes at 66.5¢.
The largest Yes position is macrosteaks with 2.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.1K. Ten wallets hold 88.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 43 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 17, 6:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 62 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 17 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 52.0% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 76.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.11K |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 2.8K |
| 党的光辉照我心 | Yes | 1.5K |
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kaohsiung-mayor-election-winner-20260813125857600
| Admired-Swing |
| Yes |
| 688.73 |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 471.77 |
| Rundown-Regard | Yes | 406.1 |
| cigarettes | No | 361.21 |
| Haradwaith | No | 309.96 |
| kitan7 | Yes | 300 |
| Ribot | Yes | 236.26 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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