Will Kyle Campbell win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

Resolved

Yes, settled Sep 15, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$12.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 15, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 15 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 1.7%. Yes opened at 15% on 22 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 15 Sep 2026, the highest close was 30% on 23 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 15 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 4.5% on 24 Aug 2026. $12.45K traded over the market's life.

31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 15 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Aug 2026	15.0%
15 Sep 2026	1.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
JAMJAMJAM4	No	3.29K
09F911029D74	No	2K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.94K

10 of 31 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).