
Resolved No on 14 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 21 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 94 daily closes on record from 21 Jan 2026 to 14 May 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 21.2% on 30 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 21.2% on 30 Apr 2026. $15.59K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 14, 8:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 94 points, 21 Jan 2026 – 14 May 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | 5.5% |
| 14 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.32K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 479.03 |
| Unwieldy-Jealousy | Yes | 200 |
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| kanshifu | Yes | 147.48 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 70.32 |
| tailhunter | Yes | 15 |
| gazzadk1981 | Yes | 11.76 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| human.bean | Yes | 6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page