Analytics
Yes is at 87%, up 20 points from 67% when the market opened on 12 Aug 2026.
Across the 75 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 67% on 12 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 86.5%; a month before, 79%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 69.5% on 20 Aug 2026.
José Maria Neves is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner”, ahead of Joana Rosa at 4.3%.
$140 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $23.74K since listing. The order book holds $19.73K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 261 trades, $7.91K bought Yes and $1.28K bought No; the largest was a $1.86K buy of Yes at 70.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Quarrelsome-Sycamore with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is singularityman with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 85.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 16 Nov 2026, 17 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 12 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | 67.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 87.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Quarrelsome-Sycamore | Yes | 2.68K |
| singularityman | No | 1.23K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.07K |
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/cape-verde-presidential-election-winner-2026
| wallet-account-test | No | 1K |
| FrozenParasite | No | 939.23 |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Yes | 832.24 |
| alpha.chen | Yes | 829.38 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 575.15 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No | 499.99 |
| Rr55 | Yes | 230 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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