Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 1.6% on 10 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 10 Jul 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 1.8% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Jul 2026. $1.96K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 1 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 1.6% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 1.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dropmeplease | Yes | 140 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| HomuraOda | Yes | 51 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-jordan-bardella-leave-the-national-rally-byptptpt-20260709012217842
| sintern | Yes | 50 |
| nidrac2 | Yes | 39 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| silverstud | Yes | 15 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| AllyouneedisClaude | Yes | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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