Analytics
Yes is at 4.8%, down 15 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 10 Jul 2026.
Across the 111 daily closes on record from 10 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 24.5% on 10 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?”.
$7.98K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.17K, with a 2.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 165 trades, $361.45 bought Yes and $2.87K bought No; the largest was a $1.37K buy of No at 87.6¢.
The largest Yes position is 74-75 with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 87.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 111 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 19.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DFK | No | 1.67K |
| StudentMoney | No | 1.31K |
| 74-75 | Yes | 1.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-jordan-bardella-leave-the-national-rally-byptptpt-20260709012217842
| nidrac2 |
| Yes |
| 380.65 |
| becc | Yes | 344.05 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 325.01 |
| Yolotrading | Yes | 300 |
| John-Doe-Trading | Yes | 201.68 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 150 |
| FrozenParasite | No | 145.05 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
