Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 72.5% on 10 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 66 daily closes on record from 10 Jun 2026 to 15 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 72.5% on 10 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 24 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 39% on 11 Jun 2026. $22.72K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 16, 11:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 10 Jun 2026 – 15 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2026 | 72.5% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Courteous-Clearing | Yes | 205.15 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 120 |
| Jubilant-Sidecar | Yes | 112.59 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". Bell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to "No" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony. A qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading. Being “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count. The primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949
| Yes |
| 100 |
| Quiet Maven 3BB7 | Yes | 55.28 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 55.17 |
| Considerate-Gathering | Yes | 51.01 |
| periculophobic | Yes | 35 |
| Reckless-Hacienda | Yes | 33.33 |
| Snpe | Yes | 33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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