Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 5 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 81 daily closes on record from 5 Mar 2026 to 13 Jun 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28.5% on 6 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 18.3% on 29 Apr 2026. $9.59K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 13, 11:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 5 Mar 2026 – 13 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Mar 2026 | 17.5% |
| 13 Jun 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.02K |
| Trump2028 | Yes | 5K |
| niglette | Yes | 511.02 |
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory
| Yes |
| 508.04 |
| NoLoyaltyToTheBosses | Yes | 500 |
| itsjustcheddar | Yes | 410 |
| Imu/voidcentury | Yes | 387.34 |
| borderwall | Yes | 226 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 182.83 |
| Repentant-Icon-Uncertainty | Yes | 169.25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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