Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 63.5%. Yes opened at 46% on 12 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2025 to 13 Aug 2025, the highest close was 46% on 12 Aug 2025 and the lowest 36.5% on 13 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 36.5% on 13 Aug 2025. $2.39K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 15, 12:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 12 Aug 2025 – 13 Aug 2025, chart shows 30%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | 46.0% |
| 13 Aug 2025 | 36.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| qwertzu | Yes | 420 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 283 |
| S888 | Yes | 99.99 |
| 0xCryptoboy | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
JD Vance is scheduled to deliver remarks to US troops stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in England on August 13 (see https://x.com/robcrilly/status/1954629142324142382). This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). Instances where full name is mentioned in a market requiring the mention of that person's first or last name a specified number of times, the full name will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "Joe / Biden 5+ times," a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). This market is explicitly about the scheduled remarks on August 13. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-jd-vance-say-during-remarks-to-us-troops-in-uk-on-august-13
| lissartter | Yes | 41.14 |
| usernameaah | Yes | 4.12 |
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