Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.5%. Yes opened at 20% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 76 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 13 Oct 2026, the highest close was 32% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 7 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 4.5% on 7 Oct 2026. $8.52K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 14, 6:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 13 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 20.0% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.68K |
| Elcreero | Yes | 254.07 |
| Cosmic Raven 18CF | Yes | 109 |
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-chief-minister-of-the-isle-of-man-20260728212301353
| Yes |
| 80 |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 76.96 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 65.76 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 60.61 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 59 |
| balthazar | Yes | 54.03 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
