Analytics
Yes is at 2.1%, down 41 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 11 Jul 2026.
Across the 106 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 12 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 13 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.6%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 24.5% on 14 Jul 2026.
Jamie Joyce ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “CA-12 House Election Winner (Individual)”. Lateefah Simon leads at 95.5%.
$4.34K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $28.56K, with a 2.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 37 trades, $44.12 bought Yes and $1.88K bought No; the largest was a $1.08K buy of No at 95.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Dr.PNL with 478 shares; the largest No position is 123905 with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 90.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 106 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 43.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 123905 | No | 1.14K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 477.86 |
| macrosteaks | No | 460 |
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-12-house-election-winner-individual-20260710020058719
| Hyperlong |
| Yes |
| 365 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 300 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 273.76 |
| zhyfacai | No | 240 |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 158 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 112.14 |
| Geromi | No | 85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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