Analytics
Yes is at 98.9%, up 41 points from 58% when the market opened on 21 Nov 2025.
Across the 314 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.9% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 37.6% on 7 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 90.3%; a month before, 93%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 37.6% on 7 Mar 2026.
No Prison Time is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “Jack Doherty Prison Time?”, ahead of <2 Years at 0.5%.
$187.02 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.44K since listing. The order book holds $598.87, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Silver Signal 409F with 593 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 76.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 314 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 58.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 98.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.37K |
| Silver Signal 409F | Yes | 592.88 |
| NeonVector | Yes | 579.12 |
YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence. This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point. If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/jack-doherty-prison-time
| vengo | Yes | 430.26 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 204.59 |
| Mantzuraj | Yes | 170 |
| qbe3 | Yes | 169.81 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 111.88 |
| KStava | No | 99.23 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 83.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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