Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison?” is a culture prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Jack Doherty Prison Time?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Nov 1, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 29, 5:06 AM UTC, Yes trades at 4.5¢, a 4.5% implied chance, $3.5K traded in the last 24 hours, $118.01 resting in the order book, a 4.3% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 295 daily price points from Nov 21, 2025 UTC to Sep 29, 2026 UTC (Yes between 1.4% and 58.0%); 42 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 83.6% of the loaded shares; 163 recent public fills from 79 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 295 points · 21 Nov 2025 – 29 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 58.0% |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 4.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.09K |
| NAA | Yes | 539.44 |
| MasonsConqueredRome | No |
YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence. This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point. If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/jack-doherty-prison-time
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 251.98 |
| Swift Orbit 3F7B | Yes | 115.15 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 80.83 |
| Bright Pioneer 6634 | Yes | 60 |
| Cosmic Pulse 7937 | Yes | 60 |
| sirkomander | Yes | 58.99 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 46.36 |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | No | 45.34 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
