Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.7%. Yes opened at 34% on 10 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 63% on 11 Sep 2025 and the low 0.9% on 29 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 32.5% on 14 Sep 2025. $76.28K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 10 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | 34.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 2.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| m500x882.in74m2.x.an | Yes | 2.02K |
| 32i1 | Yes | 603.39 |
| WhatTheHelly | Yes | 499.99 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 490 |
| Samo78 | Yes | 408.16 |
| ForChrist | Yes | 292.36 |
| Pitiful-Sweatshop | Yes | 213.57 |
| alotofbacardi | Yes | 201.88 |
| woahhh | Yes | 199.98 |
| vastik | Yes | 144.66 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any Syrian embassy or consulate between September 2, 5 PM ET, and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-syria-by-september-15
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