What is the “Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Israel Military response against Iran when?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 11 Oct 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This is a market on the timing of a military response from Israel against Iran.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

5 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 12, 7:50 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-response-against-iran-when) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday?

Market referencewill-israel-strike-iran-on-thursdayUpdated Oct 12, 2024 UTC

geopoliticsResolved

No · settled Oct 11, 2024 UTCiranmiddle-east

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$51.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 11, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Oct 15, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Oct 12, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

1.35K / 16.14K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

219

Wallets

102

Loaded notional

$32.83K

No sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Oct 11, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-8.1 pts

Range

1.5% - 17.0%

Oct 8, 12:00 AM UTC to Oct 11, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	16.14K	0.0%	$0
qrpenc	Yes	970	0.0%

Israel Military response against Iran when?

Topic room

Every related market on one live board

Iran–Israel oddsWhat are the odds of war between Israel and Iran?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Israel Military response against Iran when?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 11 Oct 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This is a market on the timing of a military response from Israel against Iran.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who still holds shares in this market?: 5 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Indigo Signal 2966

16.14K

0.0%

qrpenc

Yes

970

0.0%

Trader	Current holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$16.14K
qrpenc	$0
steadygoat	$0
Snakeskin	$0
Henry76	$0