Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.6%. Yes opened at 8% on 8 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 9.5% on 12 Oct 2024 and the low 3.4% on 13 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 6.1 points down, to 3.4% on 13 Oct 2024. $66.99K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 14, 7:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 8 Oct 2024 – 13 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2024 | 8.0% |
| 13 Oct 2024 | 3.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 16.14K |
| Cuivienen | Yes | 250 |
| Indigo Maven 58C0 | Yes | 249 |
| Keen Signal 11F7 | Yes | 235 |
| Lunar Beacon D6D5 | Yes | 234 |
| B.I. | Yes | 233.33 |
| Solar Scout 20A6 | Yes | 220 |
| Misty Sphinx 290D | Yes | 205 |
| OmenOfLord | Yes | 200 |
| Cobalt Scout B25E | Yes | 185 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies on October 12, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil before October 12, ET, this market will immediately resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-response-against-iran-when
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