Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 43.5% on 28 Feb 2026 and the low 0.1% on 7 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 1.6% on 4 Mar 2026.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 10:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 27 Feb 2026 – 7 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 37.5% |
| 7 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | Yes | 2K |
| kamarat | Yes | 500 |
| Past-Power | Yes | 309.83 |
| ydxistheking | Yes | 243.58 |
| 5atka | Yes | 199.99 |
| SlimChance203 | Yes | 168.91 |
| Dannyzz | Yes | 116.6 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
| Misty Atlas 0068 | Yes | 100 |
| wendypeekaboo | Yes | 100 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-gaza-on-339
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
