Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 28 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 42.5% on 5 Apr 2026 and the low 0.4% on 1 May 2026. $61.64K traded over the market's life.
64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 3:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 15 points · 28 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2026 | 40.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.31K |
| morilun | Yes | 3K |
| xenocat | Yes | 1.53K |
| LeDrillenisse | Yes | 958.9 |
| Tehknic | Yes | 865.35 |
| Wan234 | Yes | 852.54 |
| Dismal-Chalice | Yes | 671.79 |
| pizda1 | Yes | 477.98 |
| S888 | Yes | 432.88 |
| iie.aie | Yes | 404.08 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-april
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