Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 73.5%. Yes opened at 49% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 20 Mar 2026, the highest close was 49% on 27 Feb 2026 and the lowest 7% on 3 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 15% on 1 Mar 2026.
63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 21, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 20 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 49.0% |
| 20 Mar 2026 | 26.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 22.83K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 3.65K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 2K |
| Scornful-Conductor | Yes | 1.05K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-march
| crow | Yes | 1.01K |
| rated | Yes | 778.72 |
| Growling-Apricot | Yes | 676.5 |
| kamarat | Yes | 500 |
| Agitated-Modem | Yes | 479.35 |
| LukeAlpha | Yes | 300 |
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