Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 20 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 20 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 10.5% on 20 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 2.9% on 21 Oct 2025. $100.2K traded over the market's life.
66 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 18, 10:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 20 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2025 | 10.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 4.78K |
| Acexavi46 | Yes | 570 |
| goonthen | Yes | 551.91 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31
| Kunkunsay | Yes | 494.73 |
| raedegen | Yes | 384.62 |
| harmentalwar | Yes | 384.62 |
| Traumatic-Expert | Yes | 344.84 |
| Azure Signal AEBE | Yes | 337.43 |
| pillusch | Yes | 303.03 |
| babaman | Yes | 255.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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