Analytics
Yes is at 14%, down 3 points from 17% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 22 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 22% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 13 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.9%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 22% on 6 Oct 2026.
56.0 to 56.9 ranks fourth of the 10 outcomes in “ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026”. 53.0 to 53.9 leads at 30.5%; 54.0 to 54.9 is at 29.5%.
$9.01K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.06K, with a 1.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 361 shares; the largest No position is alamedamemola with 560. Ten wallets hold 87.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 17.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 14.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| alamedamemola | No | 559.99 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 365.96 |
| AJSV | Yes | 360.92 |
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
| rocky42009 |
| Yes |
| 294 |
| hfv | No | 257.48 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 253.44 |
| AiBird | No | 219.98 |
| Fitting-Cost | Yes | 105.12 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 94 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 57.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ism-manufacturing-pmi-october-2026
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