Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.8%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 3 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 5.1% on 4 Mar 2026 and the low 2.2% on 11 Mar 2026. $100.23K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 5, 6:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 20 points · 3 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 4.5% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | 2.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hotsyrup | Yes | 1.24K |
| toxiev3 | Yes | 567.82 |
| MrMarket | Yes | 500 |
| stefkoll | Yes | 222.22 |
| Flo31 | Yes | 213.4 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 199.99 |
| Ddmonstersfa | Yes | 125 |
| Limp-Senate | Yes | 100 |
| Alarmed-Gaiters | Yes | 96.09 |
| Solar Scout B4AF | Yes | 55 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-iran-strike-in-march
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