Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 85%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 21 Mar 2026 to 29 Mar 2026, the highest close was 50% on 21 Mar 2026 and the lowest 10% on 28 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 24.5% on 22 Mar 2026. $5.04K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 6:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 21 Mar 2026 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 15.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| arigold | Yes | 416.74 |
| 5atka | Yes | 160 |
| daroghi | Yes | 10.42 |
| calm.rabbit | No | 0.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-iran-strike-by-march-31
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