Analytics
“Will Iran strike four countries in March?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “How many different countries will Iran strike in March?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Mar 31, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 4 hourly price points from Mar 1, 2026 to Mar 4, 2026 (Yes between 2.1% and 30.0%); 28 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.5% of the loaded shares; 301 recent public fills from 78 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source: https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/f_auto,fl_lossy/q_auto/c_fill,g_faces:center,h_720,w_1280/669119
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-strike-four-countries-in-march
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| No |
| 233.66K |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Yes | 4.84K |
| Cassiopeian | Yes | 4.18K |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 4.09K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 1.31K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 1.26K |
| Thunderous-Blocker | Yes | 503.76 |
| Virtuous-Diction | Yes | 393.67 |
| rated | Yes | 288.21 |
| Anon321321 | Yes | 276.99 |