Analytics
Yes is at 1.9%, down 1.8 points from 3.8% when the market opened on 20 Mar 2026.
Across the 198 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 3.8% on 20 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 10 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.9%; a month before, 1.9%.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $82.86K since listing. The order book holds $41.7K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $365.92 bought Yes and $8.06K bought No; the largest was a $3.33K buy of No at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is neutralwave23 with 8.3K shares; the largest No position is GironaNite with 3.5K. Ten wallets hold 66.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 198 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 3.8% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 1.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 8.29K |
| GironaNite | No | 3.5K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 3.23K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-legalize-gay-marriage
| Krass |
| No |
| 1.4K |
| wazzzzzap | No | 1.29K |
| PolarOpposite | Yes | 1.16K |
| funguy1988 | No | 1K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 791.8 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 780.72 |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 754.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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