Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad clearance, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting Iranian Airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across the region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with expressed governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s Western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or nations other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Weather-related delays/cancellations will not qualify unless they result in a general suspension of commercial arrivals and departures at multiple listed airports, or are explicitly described by Iranian aviation authorities as a closure of a major region/airspace. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.