Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 2.6% on 12 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 12 Nov 2025 to 15 Nov 2025, the highest close was 2.6% on 12 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Nov 2025. $104.91K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 12 Nov 2025 – 15 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2025 | 2.6% |
| 15 Nov 2025 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| duderr | Yes | 3.33K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 915 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 315 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by November 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 119 |
| Theman995 | Yes | 113.64 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 108 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 105 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 99.36 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 65 |
| lissartter | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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