Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 330 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 18 Nov 2025 and the lowest 8% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10%; a month before, 12%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 38.5% on 20 Nov 2025.
$55.81 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $346.26K since listing. The order book holds $14.98K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.94K bought Yes and $14.96K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Dependent-Sunrise with 5.1K shares; the largest No position is tradexplorer with 5K. Ten wallets hold 55.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 330 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dependent-Sunrise | Yes | 5.1K |
| tradexplorer | No | 5K |
| theGodFather101 | No | 4.98K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by
| TANGO853 |
| Yes |
| 2K |
| 0x627A0123bE | No | 1.93K |
| Idli | Yes | 1.63K |
| kabirnath | Yes | 1.59K |
| Worse-Scenario | No | 1.48K |
| leftcurvecapital | Yes | 1.33K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 1.14K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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