Analytics
Yes is at 50.5%, about where the market opened on 27 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 27 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 50% on 27 Oct 2026.
Violent is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “How strong will In-fa be?”, ahead of Super Typhoon at 40.5%.
$227.55 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $918.84, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 38 shares; the largest No position is Lex-tang with 90.
Trading closes on 11 Nov 2026, 15 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 45%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 50.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lex-tang | No | 90 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 37.83 |
| w... | Yes | 31.6 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" in any analysis it publishes for the storm by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm. Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for In-fa will not be considered for resolution. If JMA stops publishing analyses for In-fa without having assigned it the intensity class "Violent", this market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used. If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered. Otherwise, once a published analysis has assigned In-fa the intensity class "Violent", this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. Every market in this event may resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for In-fa (JMA typhoon number 2631) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past analyses for T2631 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202631.html.en, which republishes JMA's track data and shows Maximum Wind instead of the Intensity class; there, a Maximum Wind of 105 kt or more corresponds to "Violent". Please note that this market is about the intensity class according to JMA, not according to any other agency.
| pootytherewardfarmer |
| Yes |
| 20.39 |
| nagibator01 | Yes | 20 |
| TakeYourTemperature | No | 19.84 |
| BeeYou | No | 0.39 |
| rubby1337 | Yes | 0.39 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-in-fa-reach
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