Analytics
Yes is at 64%, up 1.5 points from 62.5% when the market opened on 27 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026, the highest close was 64% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 34% on 28 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 64% on 28 Oct 2026.
Super Typhoon is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “How strong will In-fa be?”, ahead of Violent at 41.5%.
$532.95 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $914.68 since listing. The order book holds $473.02, with a 22.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 35 trades, $260.48 bought Yes and $118.07 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Pityok1 with 80 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 147.
Trading closes on 11 Nov 2026, 15 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 62.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 64.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 147.03 |
| Pityok1 | Yes | 80 |
| Swift Summit CA1B | No | 65 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon", provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". JTWC designates a "Super Typhoon" when a warning lists maximum sustained winds (one-minute average) of 130 kt or more. Only the designation in a warning's title will be considered. Forecast intensities within a warning, prognostic reasoning, Significant Tropical Weather Advisories, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JTWC, including JMA, will not be considered for resolution. If JTWC issues its final warning for In-fa without having designated it a "Super Typhoon", this market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used. If JTWC corrects or amends a warning before this market resolves, the corrected warning will be used. Otherwise the issued warning stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JTWC's issued warnings will not be considered. Otherwise, once an issued warning has designated In-fa a "Super Typhoon", this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately, regardless of any later warning, amendment, or revision. Every market in this event may resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Warnings issued by JTWC for In-fa (30W) at https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html, specifically the storm designation in each warning's title (for example, "SUPER TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING"). Please note that this market is about the designation according to JTWC, not according to JMA or any other agency.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-in-fa-reach
| yuyu2025 |
| Yes |
| 61.72 |
| Ayaswan | Yes | 60.95 |
| Blue-Horseshoe | Yes | 54.51 |
| tupils1 | No | 49.36 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 38.25 |
| Usdcmaker | Yes | 20 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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